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What are the next BRICs?
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Tom Stevenson is an investment director with Fidelity.
Ten years ago, Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs came up with the idea of throwing together the large and fast-growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China into one investable block called the "BRICs". In essence, the key common advantage among these countries was their size advantage: very big populations (more than 40 per cent of the global total) and very big land masses (more than 25 per cent of the global total), which in turn supported big economic growth prospects.
What are the emerging market opportunities a layer down from the BRICs that are not as well appreciated but have similar long-term investment potential?
Assessing the new BRICs
Using the broad criteria of large and growing populations and strong long-term economic growth potential, we take a closer look at the following five countries: Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria, Mexico and the Philippines.
Of all the contenders, Indonesia is perhaps the most similar to the BRICs, owing to its very large population (bigger than Brazil or Russia), comprised of a large and increasingly wealthy young working class producing strong average real GDP growth of 5.7 per cent in the last five years.
Even during the global financial crisis, the Indonesian economy proved impressively resilient, with few of the problems seen in developed markets: the banking sector is well capitalised, with declining non-performing loan ratios and low and declining public and external debt levels. Apart from its favourable demographics, Indonesia also benefits from a degree of economic diversification owing to significant commodity exports, including oil, gas and coal.
In December 2010, the government articulated an economic vision in which Indonesia grows to become one of the world's 10 largest economies by 2025. If it succeeds in this objective, investing in Indonesian assets early on could prove to be very rewarding. There are risks however: political risk is relatively high, with concerns about whether the government can stick to its reformist agenda owing to pressure from vested interest groups. Corruption is also high, adding to a higher-risk business environment that falls short of western standards.
